Saturday, October 23, 2004

Troops' rebellion points to supply shortages


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

Stories have swirled for days about 18 Army reservists who refused what some of them called a "suicide mission" to deliver fuel in a dangerous area near Baghdad on Oct. 13. Relatives say the troops called home with a harrowing tale of trucks that were ill-equipped to travel through an area riddled with insurgents. On Thursday, the Army announced that the company's commander had been relieved of duty, insisting that she "is not suspected of misconduct."

Details remain murky, but two early conclusions seem obvious:

• If the soldiers refused a legal order, they should be punished. The military can't function without discipline in the face of danger.

• Regardless of that fact, something is seriously wrong. Veteran soldiers, which these are, don't reject combat orders lightly. They know the consequences. The question is whether the cause is a localized command problem or something broader.

There's reason to suspect the latter.

In cell phone calls to relatives, the soldiers said their trucks were unsafe, that their convoy through dangerous territory would not be escorted by armed vehicles and that the fuel they were delivering was "contaminated," making it dangerous for other troops to use.

The credibility of those assertions is not yet clear, but they echo other evidence - both anecdotal and concrete - of inadequate resources. Among the most serious:

•Unprotected vehicles. Nineteen months after the start of the Iraq (news - web sites) war, many vehicles still are unprotected by armor, the Army acknowledged this week. Since May 2003, more than 200 soldiers riding in everything from Humvees to fuel trucks have been killed by improvised explosives.

•Supply shortages. As early as last year, body armor was so scarce that stories spread about families buying armor in the U.S. and sending it to loved ones in the field. The breadth of the problem came to light in a memo that surfaced just this month. It was written last December by the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez. He complained to the Pentagon (news - web sites) that he needed 72,000 protective inserts for body armor, and lacked spare parts for tanks and helicopters, threatening combat operations. He pleaded for help: "Our soldiers deserve nothing less while in combat."

•Second-rate defenses. Last November, after shoulder-fired missiles took down a National Guard helicopter, killing 16 soldiers, troops in Iraq complained that reservists were flying helicopters without the up-to-date missile-defense systems carried by some choppers.

That was eight months into the war. It took the intervention of two U.S. senators before acting Army Secretary Les Brownlee ordered a plan to equip all helicopters in Iraq and Afghanistan (news - web sites) "with the most effective defensive systems" the Army has.

Shortages on the battlefield are, of course, part of any war. It also is obvious now that the insurgency caught war planners by surprise. President Bush (news - web sites)'s symbolic "mission accomplished" landing on an aircraft carrier is testimony to that. But that was 17 months ago. There has been time to adjust.

Eighteen reservists may soon pay a heavy price because that adjustment has not come quickly enough.

Others may pay with their lives.

As the reservists' story unfolds, the supply issue deserves the closest scrutiny. Sanchez had it right: Troops sent to war must be given the best chance to succeed - and survive.



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If you can still smile, and laugh, read this. A state Gov. at work...


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain


This is an actual letter sent to a man named Ryan DeVries by the Department

>of Environmental Quality, State of Michigan. This guy's response is

>hilarious, but read the State's letter before you get to the response

>letter.

>---------------------------------------------------

>SUBJECT: DEQ File No.97-59-0023;T11N; R10W, Sec. 20; Montcalm County

>

>Dear Mr. DeVries:

>

>It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental Quality

>that there has been recent unauthorized activity on the above referenced

>parcel of property. You have been certified as the legal landowner and/or

>contractor who did the following unauthorized activity:

>

>Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet

>stream of Spring Pond. A permit must be issued prior to the start of this

>type of activity. A review of the Department's files shows that no such

>permits have been issued.

>

>Therefore, the Department has determined that this activity is in violation

>of Part 301, Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and

>Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being

>sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws, annotated.

>

>The Department has been informed that one or both of the dams partially

>failed during a recent rain event, causing debris and flooding at

>downstream locations. We find that dams of this nature are inherently

>hazardous and cannot be permitted.

>

>The Department therefore orders you to cease and desist all activities at

>this location, and to restore the stream to a free-flow condition by

>removing all wood and brush, forming the dams, from the stream channel.

>All restoration work shall be completed no later than January 31, of next

>year.

>

>Please notify this office, when the restoration has been completed so that

>a follow-up site inspection may be scheduled by our staff.

>Failure to comply with this request or any further unauthorized activity on

>the site may result in this case being referred for elevated enforcement

>action.

>

>We anticipate and would appreciate your full cooperation in this matter.

>Please feel free to contact me at this office if you have any questions.

>

>Sincerely,

>

>David L. Price District Representative Land and Water Management Division

>State of Michigan

>-------------------------------------------------

>** This is the actual response sent back: **

>

>Re: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec. 20; Montcalm County.

>

>Dear Mr. Price,

>

>Your certified letter dated 12/17/02 has been handed to me to respond to. I

>am the legal landowner, but not the Contractor at

>2088 Dagget, Pierson, Michigan. A couple of beavers are in the (State

>unauthorized) process of constructing and maintaining two wood "debris"

>dams across the outlet stream of my Spring Pond.

>

>While I did not pay for, authorize, nor supervise their dam project, I

>think they would be highly offended that you call their skillful use of

>natures building materials, debris.

>

>I would like to challenge your department to attempt to emulate their dam

>project any time and/or any place you choose. I believe I can safely state

>there is no way you could ever match their dam skills, their dam

>resourcefulness, their dam ingenuity, their dam persistence, their dam

>determination and/or their dam work ethic.

>

>As to your request, I do not think the beavers are aware that they must

>first fill out a dam permit prior to the start of this type of dam

>activity.

>

>My first dam question to you is: (1) Are you trying to discriminate against

>my Spring Pond Beavers or (2) do you require all beavers throughout this

>State to conform to said dam request?

>

>If you are not discriminating against these particular beavers, through the

>Freedom of Information Act, I hereby respectfully request completed copies

>of all those other applicable beaver dam permits that have been issued.

>Perhaps we will see if there really is a dam violation of Part 301, Inland

>Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection

>Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being sections 324.30101 to

>324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws, annotated.

>

>I have several other concerns. My first concern is... aren't the beavers

>entitled to legal representation? The Spring Pond Beavers are financially

>destitute and are unable to pay for said representation, so the State will

>have to provide them with a dam lawyer.

>

>The Department's dam concern that either one or both of the dams failed

>during a recent rain event causing flooding is proof that this is a natural

>occurrence, which the Department is required to protect.

>

>In other words, we should leave the Spring Pond Beavers alone rather than

>harassing them and calling their dam, names. If you want the stream

>"restored" to a dam free-flow condition, please contact the beavers, but if

>you are going to arrest them, they obviously did not pay any attention to

>your dam letter... they being unable to read English.

>

>In my humble opinion, the Spring Pond Beavers have a right to build the

>unauthorized dams, as long as the sky is blue, the grass is green and water

>flows downstream. They have more dam rights than I do to live and enjoy

>Spring Pond.

>

>If the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection lives

>up to its name, it should protect the natural resources (Beavers) as well

>as the environment (Beavers' Dams).

>

>So, as far as the beavers and I are concerned, this dam case can be

>referred for more elevated enforcement action right now. Why wait until

>1/31/2003?

>

>The Spring Pond Beavers may be under the dam ice then and there will be no

>way for you or your dam staff to contact/harass them then.

>

>In conclusion, I would like to bring your attention to a real environmental

>quality (health) problem in the area. It is the bears!

>Bears are actually defecating in our woods. I definitely believe you should

>be persecuting the defecating bears and leave the beavers alone.

>

>If you are going to investigate the beaver dam, watch your step!

>(The bears are not careful where they dump!) Being unable to comply with

>your dam request, and being unable to contact you, on your dam answering

>machine, I am sending this response to your dam office.

>

>Thank You,

>

>Ryan DeVries & The Dam Beavers
END

Now there's a man I could vote for, but "The Parties" would never let him in. See he's too smart so he's be stalled out. I've seen this done. Try running for local office, don't let your party tell what to do. I know of people who have tried for years and many of them and his party just used him till they didn't need him any more and they just cut him out. He ran for years . 12 of them that I know of. It's only do able if you do as your told and don't have a mind of your own.

MY ADVICE endeavors at keen.com. The number is 1-800-275-5336 (800-ask-keen) + ext. 0329063 for tech stuff, 0329117 for running a small business, and 0329144 on investing. Want to CHAT, I use Yahoo's IM as the_web_ster. View me in the Friends & Family part of webcamnow.com, just click on "view cams", then in the Java window click on WebcamNow Communities drop down arrow & select Friends & Family. Under the live webcams look for & click on me "the_webster".

send comments via Email to me,

Jon Stewart's point-blank comments on 'Crossfire' were on target


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

ROBERT P. LAURENCE'S REMOTE CONTROL of http://www.signonsandiego.com/
You go, Jon Stewart!

Tell the truth. Call a spade a spade. Lift up the rock and reveal the worms crawling underneath. Expose the wizard as a charlatan.

But, as it often does in politics, telling the truth can get you in trouble on a political talk show, especially when you tell the truth about the show itself.

That's the sin Stewart, the host of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show," committed the other day. He went on "Crossfire," pulled back the curtain and called the CNN show what it is – "partisan hackery."

Predictably, CNN's performing political Bickersons, supposedly archrivals in the political arena, closed ranks against the infidel, denounced him as a rank political parvenu, an impudent impostor, not a member of the anointed elite.

"I don't think he's funny," Robert Novak, on the right, fumed on Monday, following Stewart's appearance. "And I know he's uninformed."

"I think he's funny," said James Carville on the left, "I just think he's a pompous ass."

It was either that or admit the truth, admit that "Crossfire" – and "The McLaughlin Group," "Hardball," "The O'Reilly Factor" – really are political mud-wrestling disguised as informed debate.

Stewart is, by trade, a comedian. "The Daily Show" only purports to report what he calls "fake news." But his commentary each night can be pointed as well as witty, and his show has twice won Emmys as TV's best variety, music or comedy series. So, as successful talk-show hosts are wont to do, he's written a book, "America (The Book): A Citizen's Guide to Democracy Inaction."

As might be expected, he's out flogging the book. His appearance on "Crossfire," CNN's daily political shooting gallery, was part of his promotional campaign.

No doubt he'll mention it again Sunday when he appears on "60 Minutes."

That day's "Crossfire" hosts were liberal Paul Begala and conservative Tucker Carlson. They'd invited Jon Stewart the comedian. What they got was Jon Stewart, concerned citizen. Hardly breaking a snicker, he proceeded to berate them for what "Crossfire" and its ilk have done to political discourse in America.

"You're doing theater, when you should be doing debate, which would be great," said Stewart. "It's not honest. What you do is not honest. What you do is partisan hackery."

Stewart spoke more in sorrow than in anger. "Why can't we just talk – please, I beg of you guys, please," he implored. "Please, please stop. ... Stop, stop, stop, stop hurting America."

Begala offered a weak defense: "Let me get this straight. If the indictment is that 'Crossfire' reduces everything to left, right, black, white. Well, it's because, see, we're a debate show."

"That would be great," Stewart answered. "To do a debate would be great. But that's like saying pro wrestling is a show about athletic competition."

He never said that much all at once. Interruptions are the name of the game on "Crossfire," and he was seldom able to get out more than a sentence without Begala or Carlson breaking in. If a guest would ever threaten to walk out if they keep interrupting, they'd be flummoxed.

True, Stewart lost his temper, released his snarkier self. He used the common nickname for "Richard" to address Carlson, even made fun of his bow tie. In those moments, he didn't exactly elevate the level of conversation.

Carlson accused him of asking Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry softball questions when he appeared on "The Daily Show."

Stewart didn't argue. He did, however, point out that his is a comedy show, and more is expected of a supposedly serious forum: "You're on CNN. The show that leads into me is puppets making crank phone calls."

At times, his apparent naivete was obviously disingenuous, as when he asked, "Why do you argue, the two of you?" As a colleague in show business, he knows the answer to that. Arguing is their job. They're the fighting cocks in the bloody pits of politics.

Begala and Carlson shouldn't have been so surprised. Stewart has been a frequent critic of "Crossfire." He says more of the same in his "60 Minutes" interview, taped before the CNN appearance, arguing that "what has become rewarded in political discourse is the extremity of viewpoint."

Nevertheless, they seemed taken aback. This wasn't what they'd bargained for. "I thought you were going to be funny," said the puzzled Carlson. "Come on. Be funny."

"No. No. I'm not going to be your monkey," said Stewart. "I watch your show every day. And it kills me. It's so painful to watch."

Since his "Crossfire" appearance, Stewart has declined further interviews. He did tell his "Daily Show" audience that he's always thought "the show blows. I thought it was only the right thing to do to go say it to them personally on their program."

Carlson's been more voluble. Stewart "didn't hurt my feelings," he's been quoted as saying. "I just thought he was lame and out of his depth. Completely banal. He didn't tell me anything I haven't heard from drunk people in airport bars."

Even drunks in airport bars are right sometimes.

"Crossfire" and shows like it raise the political heat and the volume, intensify the anger, and contribute negligibly to the public's understanding.

Politics has been legitimately compared to show business, but these daily TV shouting matches are turning it into porn.
Robert P. Laurence: (619) 293-1892; bob.laurence@uniontrib.com
END

This is why I get my news from the BBC.com or the BBC on TV, see your local PBS station for listing. As well as , Jon's show, "The Daliy Show". IF I'm going to be "HANDLE" I'd like to to be done so I can enjoy the thing.





MY ADVICE endeavors at keen.com. The number is 1-800-275-5336 (800-ask-keen) + ext. 0329063 for tech stuff, 0329117 for running a small business, and 0329144 on investing. Want to CHAT, I use Yahoo's IM as the_web_ster. View me in the Friends & Family part of webcamnow.com, just click on "view cams", then in the Java window click on WebcamNow Communities drop down arrow & select Friends & Family. Under the live webcams look for & click on me "the_webster".

send comments via Email to me,

Friday, October 22, 2004

BUSH SUPPORTERS MISLED


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

A new study by the Program on International Policy
Attitudes (PIPA) shows that supporters of President
Bush hold wildly inaccurate views about the world.
For example, "a large majority [72 percent] of Bush
supporters believe that before the war Iraq had
weapons of mass destruction."[1] Most Bush supporters
[57 percent] also believe that the recently
released report by Charles Duelfer, the administration's
hand-picked weapons inspector, concluded Iraq either
had WMD or a major program for developing them.[2]
In fact, the report concluded "Saddam Hussein did
not produce or possess any weapons of mass
destruction for more than a decade before the U.S.-led
invasion" and the U.N. inspection regime had "curbed his
ability to build or develop weapons."[3]

According to the study, 75 percent Bush supporters
also believe "Iraq was providing substantial
support to al Qaeda."[4] Most Bush supporters [55
percent] believe that was the conclusion of the 9/11
commission.[5] In fact, the 9/11 commission concluded
there was no "collaborative relationship" between
al-Qaeda and Iraq.[6]

Bush supporters also hold inaccurate views about
world public opinion of the war in Iraq and a range
of Bush's foreign policy positions.[7]

Sources:

1. "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry
Supporters," Program on International Policy Attitudes,
10/21/04,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64458.
2. Ibid,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64458.
3. "Iraq's Illicit Weapons Gone Since Early '90s,
CIA Says," Los Angeles Times, 10/07/04,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64459.
4. "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry
Supporters," Program on International Policy Attitudes,
10/21/04,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64458.
5. Ibid,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64458.
6. "Al Qaeda-Hussein Link Is Dismissed," Washington
Post, 6/17/04,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64460.
7. "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry
Supporters," Program on International Policy Attitudes,
10/21/04,
http://daily.misleader.org/ctt.asp?u=2460565&l=64458.




MY ADVICE endeavors at keen.com. The number is 1-800-275-5336 (800-ask-keen) + ext. 0329063 for tech stuff, 0329117 for running a small business, and 0329144 on investing. Want to CHAT, I use Yahoo's IM as the_web_ster. View me in the Friends & Family part of webcamnow.com, just click on "view cams", then in the Java window click on WebcamNow Communities drop down arrow & select Friends & Family. Under the live webcams look for & click on me "the_webster".

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Dow Slides to Year Low on Oil, Microsoft


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The blue-chip Dow closed at its lowest point this year on Friday as oil prices climbed to another record and Microsoft Corp.'s (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) revenue forecast lagged analysts' expectations.

Gee, what great leadership in the Whitehouse

Dow at 9757 off 107 just today, Nasdaq at 1915 off 37 today. And oil, $55.17 at the close today. Gee, what could he do with another 4 years.


MY ADVICE endeavors at keen.com. The number is 1-800-275-5336 (800-ask-keen) + ext. 0329063 for tech stuff, 0329117 for running a small business, and 0329144 on investing. Want to CHAT, I use Yahoo's IM as the_web_ster. View me in the Friends & Family part of webcamnow.com, just click on "view cams", then in the Java window click on WebcamNow Communities drop down arrow & select Friends & Family. Under the live webcams look for & click on me "the_webster".

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WEll, oil just went over $53.00 a barrel. Any other President and he be firied


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

I don't understand it. He an oil man and the price of oil has doubled during his rain. What part of "I'm screwing ya don't you understand. First TX "did it" to CA and that when so well we now have a TX good old boy in the White House and he's doing it to the hold country. And you think you want 4 more years of it. God the dooming down of America WORKED. In math there's a rule that says if you guess Door #1, and they show you that door #2 was not the really big deal, change from #1 to #3. Odds are you'd WIN by changing to door #3. Think about what I've said, please. Four years of someone new is better then staying with what we got. What to guess what the price of Gas and Nat. Gas will be when he's got nothing to be nice about as he can't run again. Or would you let him change that too.




MY ADVICE endeavors at keen.com. The number is 1-800-275-5336 (800-ask-keen) + ext. 0329063 for tech stuff, 0329117 for running a small business, and 0329144 on investing. Want to CHAT, I use Yahoo's IM as the_web_ster. View me in the Friends & Family part of webcamnow.com, just click on "view cams", then in the Java window click on WebcamNow Communities drop down arrow & select Friends & Family. Under the live webcams look for & click on me "the_webster".

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Thursday, October 21, 2004

Global Warming Bombshell - A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics.


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

Progress in science is sometimes made by great discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we believed to be true isn’t. When solving a jigsaw puzzle, the solution can sometimes be stymied by the fact that a wrong piece has been wedged in a key place.



Topic > Energy, Environment, & Agriculture > Environment



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@ 10/21/2004 1:05:58 AM
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@ 10/20/2004 4:20:59 PM
Warm Office= Fewer Typing Errors

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@ 10/20/2004 3:35:51 PM
Mr Sim




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Global Warming Bombshell
A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics.


By Richard Muller
Technology for Presidents
October 15, 2004



Progress in science is sometimes made by great discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we believed to be true isn’t. When solving a jigsaw puzzle, the solution can sometimes be stymied by the fact that a wrong piece has been wedged in a key place.




In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the “hockey stick,” the famous plot (shown below), published by University of Massachusetts geoscientist Michael Mann and colleagues. This plot purports to show that we are now experiencing the warmest climate in a millennium, and that the earth, after remaining cool for centuries during the medieval era, suddenly began to heat up about 100 years ago--just at the time that the burning of coal and oil led to an increase in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide.

I talked about this at length in my December 2003 column. Unfortunately, discussion of this plot has been so polluted by political and activist frenzy that it is hard to dig into it to reach the science. My earlier column was largely a plea to let science proceed unmolested. Unfortunately, the very importance of the issue has made careful science difficult to pursue.

But now a shock: Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.

But it wasn’t so. McIntyre and McKitrick obtained part of the program that Mann used, and they found serious problems. Not only does the program not do conventional PCA, but it handles data normalization in a way that can only be described as mistaken.

Now comes the real shocker. This improper normalization procedure tends to emphasize any data that do have the hockey stick shape, and to suppress all data that do not. To demonstrate this effect, McIntyre and McKitrick created some meaningless test data that had, on average, no trends. This method of generating random data is called “Monte Carlo” analysis, after the famous casino, and it is widely used in statistical analysis to test procedures. When McIntyre and McKitrick fed these random data into the Mann procedure, out popped a hockey stick shape!

That discovery hit me like a bombshell, and I suspect it is having the same effect on many others. Suddenly the hockey stick, the poster-child of the global warming community, turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. How could it happen? What is going on? Let me digress into a short technical discussion of how this incredible error took place.

In PCA and similar techniques, each of the (in this case, typically 70) different data sets have their averages subtracted (so they have a mean of zero), and then are multiplied by a number to make their average variation around that mean to be equal to one; in technical jargon, we say that each data set is normalized to zero mean and unit variance. In standard PCA, each data set is normalized over its complete data period; for key climate data sets that Mann used to create his hockey stick graph, this was the interval 1400-1980. But the computer program Mann used did not do that. Instead, it forced each data set to have zero mean for the time period 1902-1980, and to match the historical records for this interval. This is the time when the historical temperature is well known, so this procedure does guarantee the most accurate temperature scale. But it completely screws up PCA. PCA is mostly concerned with the data sets that have high variance, and the Mann normalization procedure tends to give very high variance to any data set with a hockey stick shape. (Such data sets have zero mean only over the 1902-1980 period, not over the longer 1400-1980 period.)

The net result: the “principal component” will have a hockey stick shape even if most of the data do not.

McIntyre and McKitrick sent their detailed analysis to Nature magazine for publication, and it was extensively refereed. But their paper was finally rejected. In frustration, McIntyre and McKitrick put the entire record of their submission and the referee reports on a Web page for all to see. If you look, you’ll see that McIntyre and McKitrick have found numerous other problems with the Mann analysis. I emphasize the bug in their PCA program simply because it is so blatant and so easy to understand. Apparently, Mann and his colleagues never tested their program with the standard Monte Carlo approach, or they would have discovered the error themselves. Other and different criticisms of the hockey stick are emerging (see, for example, the paper by Hans von Storch and colleagues in the September 30 issue of Science).

Some people may complain that McIntyre and McKitrick did not publish their results in a refereed journal. That is true--but not for lack of trying. Moreover, the paper was refereed--and even better, the referee reports are there for us to read. McIntyre and McKitrick’s only failure was in not convincing Nature that the paper was important enough to publish.

How does this bombshell affect what we think about global warming?

It certainly does not negate the threat of a long-term global temperature increase. In fact, McIntyre and McKitrick are careful to point out that it is hard to draw conclusions from these data, even with their corrections. Did medieval global warming take place? Last month the consensus was that it did not; now the correct answer is that nobody really knows. Uncovering errors in the Mann analysis doesn’t settle the debate; it just reopens it. We now know less about the history of climate, and its natural fluctuations over century-scale time frames, than we thought we knew.

If you are concerned about global warming (as I am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide may contribute (as I do), then you still should agree that we are much better off having broken the hockey stick. Misinformation can do real harm, because it distorts predictions. Suppose, for example, that future measurements in the years 2005-2015 show a clear and distinct global cooling trend. (It could happen.) If we mistakenly took the hockey stick seriously--that is, if we believed that natural fluctuations in climate are small--then we might conclude (mistakenly) that the cooling could not be just a random fluctuation on top of a long-term warming trend, since according to the hockey stick, such fluctuations are negligible. And that might lead in turn to the mistaken conclusion that global warming predictions are a lot of hooey. If, on the other hand, we reject the hockey stick, and recognize that natural fluctuations can be large, then we will not be misled by a few years of random cooling.

A phony hockey stick is more dangerous than a broken one--if we know it is broken. It is our responsibility as scientists to look at the data in an unbiased way, and draw whatever conclusions follow. When we discover a mistake, we admit it, learn from it, and perhaps discover once again the value of caution.



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Kerry wins "foreign fans" on global warming


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
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"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain

http://www.globalwarming.org/
Wed 20 October, 2004 12:14

By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

OSLO (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry has won plaudits abroad for his promises to fight global warming but could find his hands tied at home if he wins next month's U.S. elections.

An ideological chasm separates the environmental policies of the two candidates, with President George W. Bush favouring more use of domestic coal and oil to cut dependence on Middle East oil while Kerry seeks a shift to clean energy like solar or wind power by 2020.

On global warming, Kerry wins fans abroad by pledging to rejoin international efforts to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases by the United States, the world's top polluter, even though he rules out signing up for the U.N.'s Kyoto protocol.

Bush angered U.S. allies by abandoning Kyoto in 2001.

But U.S. lawmakers, fearful of extra costs when oil is at $50 a barrel, might well constrain Kerry if he won on November 2 as they did ex-President Bill Clinton, whose administration signed up for Kyoto in 1997 but never got it ratified.

"The problem is not Bush or Kerry, the problem is the Senate," said Dutch State Secretary for the Environment Pieter van Geel, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union. "We still have almost the same Senate."

"On global warming and other global issues I don't see much difference between Kerry and Bush," added Sunita Narain, director of the Centre for Science and Environment in New Delhi. "There'll be a nuance change."

NUANCES?

But even nuances may be welcome news to supporters of the 126-nation Kyoto pact, who see targets for curbing emissions of carbon dioxide from cars, factories and power plants by 2012 as a first step in battling global warming.

"Kerry would engage with other countries about what would come after 2012 in a way that the Bush administration wouldn't," said Eileen Claussen, head of the Pew Centre on Global Climate Change. She said the environment came far behind Iraq, terror and the economy in voter priorities.

The Republican president has derided Kyoto as too costly and says it is unfair because it exempts rapidly industrialising countries like China and India. "It's one of those deals where, in order to be popular in the halls of Europe, you sign a treaty," he said.

Kerry says Bush should have tried to renegotiate a "flawed" Kyoto rather than ditching it. Kyoto is set to enter into force in the next few weeks with Russian backing.

Kyoto aims to cut developed nations' emissions by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Many scientists say storms, rising sea levels and desertification may be the biggest threat to life on the planet in the coming centuries, justifying trillions of dollars in spending to crack down.

Some say Russia could spur U.S. action.

"We have completely new momentum in the debate," said European Environment Commissioner Margot Wallstrom of Russia's imminent ratification. "This will continue to raise the debate level in the U.S."

Russian ratification would push Kyoto over the threshold of 55 percent of developed nations' emissions needed to enter into force. Kyoto will reach 61 percent with Russia's 17 percent.

"It's not as black as it seems. There is some hope for a tougher U.S. climate policy whoever wins," said Paal Prestrud of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo. "There's no doubt there will be better chances with Kerry than with Bush."

BUSH BACKS HYDROGEN

Bush's global warming policies seek to keep growth in carbon dioxide emissions sharply below the rate of economic growth by 2012 -- but it falls short of Kyoto's demand for caps.

Bush recently got the worst "F" rating for his environmental record from the U.S. League of Conservation Voters. On a different scale, it gave Kerry a high 92 percent. "Bush has rewarded Big Oil and he wrongly walked away from Kyoto," said spokesman Mark Sokolove.

Both Bush and Kerry want to improve energy security by cutting dependence on foreign oil suppliers like Saudi Arabia, which meet about 65 percent of demand.

Both want more conservation and drilling in some offshore Gulf of Mexico fields. Bush also wants new drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, which Kerry opposes.

Bush has pushed for a $1.2 billion plan to run cars on hydrogen. Kerry wants the United States to get 20 percent of its electricity from alternative sources like solar and wind by 2020, up from one percent now, excluding hydropower.






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Kerry vs. Kerry, Boxing fun this time


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain



http://www.rnc.org/kerryvskerry/


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KERRYOPOLY


"He who is willing to sacrifice freedom for safety deserves neither freedom nor safety." - Ben Franklin
"One useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men are called a law firm; and three or more useless men are a congress" - John Adams
Politicians and diapers should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons.
"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time and your government when it deserves it."--Mark Twain



http://www.rnc.org/kerryopoly/default.asp


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